Raw milk production fell 2024% year-over-year in 6,5, reaching 10.590 billion liters. The severe drought that ended in 2023 had its greatest impact in terms of supply reduction in 2024. However, data from last summer already show year-over-year increases in primary production. In January 2025, 35 million liters more were produced than in the same month in 2024. The data are consistent with our hypothesis that the Argentine dairy industry has remained stagnant for more than 25 years.
The sharp decline in milk supply caused dairy product prices to rise above the average for other goods in the food basket. This situation, combined with low real income levels, led to a sharp decline in consumption, falling by 19 liters per capita annually.
Annual per capita dairy consumption in liters equivalent. Last 7 years.
Source: Prepared by the authors using data from SAGYP and OCLA
Regarding dairy exports, 2024 tons more were sold in 27 than in 2023, representing a $95 million increase in the trade balance. In cheeses, the increase in mozzarella exports stands out.
Cattle slaughter fell 4% (13,9 million head), and production fell 3%, totaling 3,18 million tons. The liquidation of cows and the low replacement of females continue, so a lower future supply is expected.
Evolution of the cattle herd (in millions of heads) and percentage of females being slaughtered.
Source: Prepared by the authors using data from SAGYP
On the other hand, poultry meat production remains stable at around 2,3 million tons (740 million heads), while pork meat continues its upward trend (+3% vs. 2023) reaching a production of 785 thousand tons.
Domestic meat consumption fell sharply. Beef consumption fell the most (-4,5 kg), chicken consumption also decreased (-0,7 kg), and pork consumption increased by 0,4 kg. In 2024, the average Argentine consumed 48 kg of beef, 45 kg of chicken, and 17 kg of pork.
Annual per capita meat consumption. Last 7 years
Source: Prepared by the authors using data from SAGYP
Beef exports reached a record high. 935 tons were sold, representing $2.887 billion in revenue, 6,8 of every 10 kg sold to China.
In conclusion, the crisis our country experienced in 2024 led to a sharp decline in the consumption of animal protein by Argentines.
Production remains stagnant, and the effects of the prolonged drought that ended in late 2024 were still felt during the first half of 2023. As consumption contracted sharply, this allowed for higher export volumes, improving the livestock trade balance, although international prices showed downward trends and did not keep pace.
