Why the 2024/25 agricultural season was among the five best in history, what happened with yields, prices and export taxes, and what to expect for 2025/26. December 2025 report.
Maíz en sus primeras etapas de crecimiento.The 2024/25 growing season was characterized by marked climatic variability across the country's different production regions. Summer planting began with good water conditions, but in January, during the leaf expansion stage, temperatures were very high and rainfall scarce. In February, rainfall patterns improved, allowing for good final development.
In short, the 2024/25 campaign was among the 5 best in Argentine history, reaching 140 Mtn, in 43,6 Mha sown and 38,3 Mha harvested.
Evolution of production (Mtn) and planted area (Mha) from 1990 to 2025
Producción de granos por cultivo y área sembrada, 1989/90 a 2024/25.Area sown and yields per crop
Regarding the main summer crops, soybean cultivation increased by 1,5 million hectares. Sunflower cultivation increased by 500,000 hectares, while corn cultivation decreased by 2 million hectares. The reduction in corn acreage is explained by a sharp decrease in the area used for second-crop corn. This was due to the risk of the leafhopper infestation and projected downward trends in grain prices.
Yields were close to the averages of the last 12 years. Production reached 51 million tons of soybeans, 51,5 million tons of corn, 5 million tons of sunflowers, and 3 million tons of sorghum. Among winter crops, wheat stood out with 18,5 million tons and barley with 5 million tons.
Yield of the main crops in Argentina over the last 5 years
Rindes de soja, maíz y trigo en las últimas cinco campañas.Outlook for the 2025/26 season
Forecasts for the 2025/26 season indicate record production for major crops, with increases exceeding growth in demand/consumption. This suggests that prices will likely remain low, close to current levels.
A record wheat harvest is expected for the 2025/26 season due to favorable weather conditions and a 5% increase in acreage. However, a reduction in barley production is anticipated due to a 15% decrease in acreage. Regarding summer crops, corn acreage is projected to increase by 1,1 million hectares, and sunflower acreage by 400 hectares, while soybean acreage is expected to decrease by 600 hectares.
Prices, withholdings and foreign exchange
Regarding the evolution of local prices, the 2024/25 season was characterized by policies of temporary reductions in export duties. This allowed for slight improvements in local prices throughout the season. Furthermore, nearly US$30 billion has already been settled in 2025. November and December remain, when settlements typically reach between US$3 billion and US$5 billion (primarily from wheat sales to Brazil).
We reiterate the importance of the Oilseed and Grain Complex, as it generates the most foreign exchange for Argentina, and how macroeconomic and political stability often depends on the performance of these commodities . We highlight that in October 2025, over US$7 billion was liquidated due to the temporary elimination of export duties. This, along with other measures, allowed the current government to mitigate exchange rate risk. Currently, export duty rates are back to pre-reduction levels. In other words, they have returned to their previous values.
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Monitor Agropecuario – Campaña 2024-2025. Informes del Observatorio UNR N.º 76 — Serie Informes de Coyuntura N.º 34, diciembre de 2025. ISSN 2683-9067 / 2683-9075. Autor: Alfredo O. Bula.