Monetary overview
In December, with the assumption of the new authorities, a “non-disruptive monetary regime change” was launched, a title used by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) itself on December 12, 2023, in order to correct the current imbalances.
The monetary authority focused on working on endogenous issuance instruments, that is, instruments that form part of the BCRA's liabilities and that accrue interest.
First, on December 18, 2023, the LELIQs were transformed into passive one-day "pases", then on July 22, 2024, the suspension of the operation of passive passes was ordered and the "Letra Fiscal de Liquidez" (LeFi) was established as the main liquidity management instrument of the banking system.
The report accompanying this note provides a summary of the most important monetary variables. It is presented in different thematic axes: international reserves, the assets and liabilities of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), reference interest rates and the exchange rate.
Situation as of September 30, 2024
Regarding the objective of strengthening the International Reserves, this has not yet been achieved, largely due to the real lag in the exchange rate. Although the reserves have grown compared to when the current government took office, their magnitude is lower than projected.
The pre-set devaluation rate of 2% per month, known as the crawling peg, compared to inflation, causes the exchange rate to appreciate in real terms.
Regarding the situation of the assets and liabilities of the BCRA, the document shows how the composition of both is evolving with the aim of achieving the clean-up of the entity, an objective that would be achieved.
To achieve these objectives, various measures were taken:
- In December 2023, the official exchange rate went from 365 to 800 pesos per dollar.
- The change that occurs in May 2024 is the result of an adjustment in the valuation criteria, at the amortization cost of the Non-Transferable Treasury Notes
- On June 22, the BCRA ordered the suspension of the operation of passive repurchase agreements, eliminating endogenous issuance, replaced by the “Liquidity Fiscal Letter” (Letra Fiscal de Liquidez) (LeFi), issued by the treasury.
- The BCRA proposed as an objective to limit the amount of pesos to the amount of the Broad Monetary Base (the sum of remunerated liabilities in pesos and monetary base) as of April 30, 2024, that is, $47,7 trillion current pesos (9,1% of GDP).
Money laundering and expectations
Related to the current money laundering (27.743 law) foreign currency deposits in the financial system experienced significant growth, although the first stage was scheduled to end on September 30, 2024, the government extended it by one month.
LastThe report shows the level of the various reference rates, inflation, the evolution of the official exchange rate (as well as other exchange rates) with its future expectation and the multilateral real exchange rate index.
