La monetary base of the Central Bank It consists of two factors, the money in circulation and the reserves that banks keep in the entity. In general, banks rarely have incentives to keep their own funds tied up, so it is expected that there will not be a great difference between the amount that the law requires (what is commonly called anchorage).

Let's see what's happening with this addition. So far this year, the growth of the monetary base The average annual increase is 30,66%, 10 percentage points above the same average recorded last year. Considering only the month of June, the amount rises to $482.719M, the highest of the entire year.

In fact - and to be fair with the argument - throughout the first quarter of 2015, the monetary base continued to grow in year-on-year terms, but at a slower pace than the inflation.

Moreover, a slight decline had been recorded month after month, which, together with the increased placement of domestic debt to finance the treasury, left open the question of whether any indication of a change in monetary policy was being recorded.

With the information consolidated up to the month of June, that is, adding the results of the second quarter of the year, the new question The question we are faced with is whether the monetary authority has abandoned the sterilization option or, on the contrary, the stock that continues to accumulate LEBACs The margin for continuing to execute this maneuver is reduced and the growth of the monetary base is only the result of a certain exhaustion in the use of this instrument.

Indeed, the doubt It is valid because after the brake was put on the placement of letters, when the Central Bank withdrew from the market a value of $15.255M for this concept; in the following months the stock of said instruments has expanded again, reaching the level of $370.347M, of which $21.071M corresponded exclusively to the placements made in June. That is to say: more monetary base, but also a greater quantity of bills on the market.

Something that can be said with certainty concerns the structure of maturity terms of this type of placements. In the auction that takes place on Tuesdays of each week, on May 26, the monetary authority reduced to a fifth the maximum limit of those instruments with maturities of 90 and 120 days.

In this way, the central bank directs the banks' investment portfolio towards longer-term horizons (the LEBACs longer-term bonds are 180 or 270 days) with nominal interest rates that are beginning to approach 30% (April is the last declared month and records a nominal rate of 29,72% at 12 months).

All of which leads us to ask what is happening on the asset side. Specifically, at the end of June, how are the assets evolving? work??

On the scaffolding of the execution of the different sections of the Chinese swap, originally activated on October 30, 2014, obtaining foreign currency by placing YPF negotiable obligations On April 28th, and the placement in the BONAR 24 external financial markets, reserves have been able to remain at a relatively stable level throughout the first half of the year.

At the end of June, reserves amounting to US$33.851M had been declared, representing 64% of the monetary base.

However, it cannot be overlooked that this number has its complications. Part of the stock corresponds to immediately payable debt, frozen due to the unfortunate ruling and subsequent blockage by the judge. Griesa.

It is also true that payment to the importers The delay is taking place and, in general, payments are released more easily for activities involving priority issues, such as energy. And of course, at the end of May, an extension of the swap with China.

All of which does not in any way predict the two extreme positions put forward in the media: a catastrophe is not inevitable, but neither is it an entirely optimistic scenario that does not require the implementation of active measures, such as debt rescheduling or swaps.

For now, for the rest of the year the obligations for payments of principal and interest on debt reach US$ 22.027M, of which 32% is denominated in foreign currency (i.e. US$ 7.074M).

Most concentrated on paying the BODEN 2015, which are cancelled on October 4. Thus, everything seems to indicate that this topic will dominate the following reports. For the moment, we invite you to download the consolidated report for the month of June.